CTOD: Washington Nationals

Upon reviewing the outlook for the Washington Nationals for the upcoming season I was instantly filled with regret for saying the Mets could compete with them for the bottom of the NL East this year. Perhaps it is the prospect hype, with Strasburg last year and then Harper this year, or else the high profile signing of Jayson Werth in the offseason, or Ryan Zimmerman emerging as one of the games best players, but I seem to give the Nats more credit then they deserve.



I am not sure what the Nationals long term plan is but it tentatively looks like Strasburg being back in 2012, maybe Harper as a late season callup, and then competing in 2013. Of course that leads one to wonder why you pay a 31 year old Jayson Werth $18 million a year until that point, or why you want to commit to a seven year contract to a 31 year old in general, but I digress. For the record, I do think Jayson Werth was underrated in Philly. He averaged 5 WAR a season for the past 3 years, a value of roughly $60 million dollars according to Fangraphs, but in spite of that I am not a fan of big money contracts that pay players into their late thirties.

Aside from Werth, the only real ray of light on the Nationals roster is Ryan Zimmerman. He may very well be the best young player in baseball, he is still only 26, and it is a virtual tossup between him and Evan Longoria for best 3B in the game.

Moving away from the big names, the Nats do have a couple other players who could develop into solid regulars. Mike Morse shed his AAAA player label and performed well in 300 ABs last season. Danny Espinosa rocketed through double and triple-A last season and looks poised to be the starting 2B this year. Joining him up the middle is Ian Desmond, who had very similar minor league success, but struggled to adjust last year in the show. If Desmond and Espinosa show they can adjust to major league pitching this year then Nationals could have an excellent supporting crew to the superstars in 2012-13.

However, where things get messy is in the rotation. Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, John Lannan, Jordan Zimmerman, and Tom Gorzelanny. Yikes. The only pitcher here with any upside is Zimmerman and it will be interesting to see how he pitches in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. That being said, this rotation should be comfortable in competing with the Royals and Pirates for the worst in all of baseball.

Overall, PECOTA projections have the Nationals combining the second lowest OBP in the NL alongside allowing the fourth most runs allowed. Definitely not a recipe for success. Nevertheless, this season is about building for 2012-13 and Nationals fans will be eagerly watching some of their supporting players develop.

Prediction: Easy, last in NL East.

Surprise Player: Mike Morse

After 11 long years of toiling in the minors Mike Morse finally got his shot in the big leagues last year and made it count. His .289/.352/.519 over the course of 100 games is impressive and right in line with his performance in the minors when healthy. Although there were questions of whether he would have a place in the Nationals outfield to start this season, including the possibility that he could platoon, he has absolutely raked this spring (7 HRs) and looks poised to to start in RF. Look for a great season and possibly 30 HRs from this late bloomer.