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Saturday 26 March 2011

CTOD: San Diego Padres

Last year was a cinderella season for the Padres, the kind of season all fans hope for during the spring, and they will be hoping for lightning to strike twice once again come April. I like to always refer to PECOTA rankings in these countdown to opening day previews as it gives a good look at what a team looks like on paper. That being said, the margin of error for PECOTA projections is usually plus or minus 8 wins, and thus as a purely predictive tool they aren't overly reliable. Critics of such projection systems would love to point to the fact that in 2010 the Padres were projected to win 74 games and instead won 90 while being in the pennant race all the way into the last weekend.


Regardless of how you feel about projection tools, it was still hard to find anyone who really believed the Padres wouldn't finish last, let alone compete, last season. There are two reasons why the Padres were good last year: pitching and relief pitching. Mat Latos anchored the rotation, posting Cy Young numbers, and looks poised to be one of the leagues best pitchers for years to come. However, the true strength of this team lies in its relief corps. The bullpen posted a 2.81 ERA last season, with six relievers that average more than a K per inning, and was largely the reason why the Padres allowed the fewest runs in baseball. With a bullpen this good it is easy to see how a team can succeed while giving Kevin Correia and Wade LeBlanc 50 starts.

The perennial question for the Padres is always about the offense. Whereas in the past these questions were largely about Adrian Gonzalez, and why on earth anyone would ever pitch to him, present questions are about how this lineup will generate runs at all. So for 2011 the Padres are hoping that Chase Headley and Will Venable can finally take a step forward to become better than league average players, that Ryan Ludwick and Brad Hawpe can return to their 2009 form, and that Juan Uribe's power doesn't get sapped by PETCO.

Overall, if the pitching can perform like it did last year then the Padres will always be competitive. However, while the front office and management in San Diego are notorious for getting the most out of their relievers, bullpen performance usually tends to be the most erratic, and unpredictable, facet of professional baseball. Expecting another sub 3 ERA performance out of the bullpen is hasty and there isn't the offense or starting pitching here to make up for the loss.

Prediction: 3rd NL West.

Surprise Player: Mat Latos

Yes, PETCO park will always be beneficial to pitchers and thus inflate their stats just as Coors Field plays to the Rockies hitters. That being said, Mat Latos pitched just as well, if not better, on the road than at home last year. Latos is built in the same way as Roger Clemens, both mentally and physically. He has the attitude of a dominator and the stuff to back it up. He should compete for the Cy Young this year so long as his leap in innings last year doesn't catch up to him.

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