There were few surprises on the hill last season for the Phils. Halladay mowed through NL hitters for a spectacular 250 innings. Hamels pitched almost exactly the same way he has for the past 3 years, with #1 stuff, and his ERA came back down to near 3.00 after an unlucky 2009. Oswalt wasn't just lights out for his second half stint with Philadelphia, he was as good as he has ever been, posting his best K rate since his rookie year. Add Cliff Lee and things are looking mighty difficult for NL lineups this year. However, with the exception of Hamels, no one on this super-staff is a spring chicken. Doc-Lee-Roy are all north of 33 and it wouldn't be unreasonable to except any of them to start to decline or miss time with those nagging injuries that afflict older pitchers.
Offensively, things get interesting quick. Spring training has not been kind to the Phillies as they have lost their best player, Chase Utley, to a knee injury, and Domonic Brown to a broken bone in his wrist. Without Utley, and the departed Jayson Werth, Philadelphia's lineup loses most of its teeth. Ryan Howard, like almost big men before him, has begun his decline, as has Jimmy Rollins. Actually, Rollins' decline began three years ago but he is still bringing enough in the field to be considered valuable. Carlos Ruiz was a revelation last year, but like most 31 year olds without a track history of success we should be skeptical, and his .335 BABIP last season - 50 points over his career average - is reason enough to think he received a few lucky breaks last year.
I never like to put too much stock in one player but it is difficult not to with the Phils. This team looks so much different, and better, with Chase Utley in the lineup every day. Without him in the lineup it is difficult to imagine where consistent production will come from.
Prediction: A lot of low scoring, tight games, and extreme tension of Phillies fans. I still can't bet against the super rotation though. 2nd in the NL East, NL Wild Card.
Surprise Player: Ryan Howard
Last season, Fangraphs had Ryan Howard at 2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). That made him the 7th most valuable player in the Phillies everyday lineup. Only Raul "remember the first two months of 2009" Ibanez was less valuable on a day to day basis. Furthermore, the five year contract extension that Howard signed last year - for $125 million - doesn't kick in until next season. There are lots of people in Philadelphia, both in the stands and front office, that hope last season wasn't a sign of what is coming for the next five years. It's make or break time for Howard, any further decline and his contract will seem like one of the worst in MLB, and we all know how Phillies fans will react to that.
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