CTOD: Detroit Tigers

Glancing at the PECOTA projections for 2011 and it looks like a three team dogsled race between the Twins, White Sox, and Tigers. Indeed, all three are projected to win 82-83 wins. This may seem counterintuitive upon looking at last years final standings, the Tigers finished 13 games behind the Twins, but still demonstrates how close the talent pool is between these three teams.

Last season, Detroit mainly fell behind its divisional rivals in run prevention. They allowed 39 more runs the ChiSox and 72 more runs than the Twins despite scoring runs at a very similar rate to both teams. Interestingly, most of the questions about the Tigers going into the 2011 season are about offense as the pitching looks to be the most predictable part of this team.



Offensively, the only sure bet in this lineup is Miguel Cabrera, which says something in and of itself. To be certain, one is forced to wonder when the off field troubles will finally catch up with the young superstar and derail what has already been a fabulous career. That being said, Cabrera has never played less than a 150 games since becoming a starter 7 years ago. Outside of Cabrera, the Tigers are relying on Austin Jackson, Magglio Ordonez, and newcomer Victor Martinez to fill out the offense. All three come with questions though. Jackson had an excellent rookie campaign but his ridiculously high BABIP leaves many wondering if his performance can possibly be maintained. Maggs produced well in half a season's worth of plate appearances but it remains to be seen if he can be consistently healthy enough to be an offensive threat on a day to day basis. Finally, V-Mart is supposed to provide protection for Cabrera but his home/road splits last season have led many to conclude his offense was largely a product of Fenway. Moving beyond the big names, the Tigers will be relying on journeymen Brandon Inge, Jhonny Peralta, and Carlos Guillen to fill roster spots alongside youngsters Ryan Raburn, Will Rhymes, and Alex Avila. Questions abound and with the exception of Raburn and Inge there is little was of knowing what to expect from the others.

In the rotation, the Tigers feature the best one-two punch in the division. Verlander remains one of the premier pitchers in the game, a perennial Cy Young contender, who has gone over 224 IP the last two seasons. He is joined by Max Scherzer who has long been touted as a potential ace and has put together back-to-back quality seasons. Both Scherzer and Verlander miss bats at an incredible rate, good for 4th and 6th best in the AL for K/9, and should keep the Tigers in most games when they start. After the big two, the Tigers rotation should be filled out by Rick Porcello, Brad Penny, and Phil Coke. Porcello pitched almost identically to the way he did in his rookie campaign and his numbers regressed almost exactly the way advanced metrics predicted they would. Brad Penny has already thrown 25 IP this bring, half of what he threw in all of last season, and will be counted on to eat valuable innings.

Overall, the Tigers have the superstar players in Cabrera and Verlander but have endless questions throughout the rest of the lineup and rotation. Unlike the Twins and White Sox, which feature more consistent and reliable rosters, projecting this team is difficult. Contention is definitely a possibility, although a remote one.

Prediction: .500 team, good for 3rd in the AL Central.

Surprise Player: Ryan Raburn

Ryan Raburn is finally ready to start and all it took was being the Tigers best outfielder over the past two years to earn that spot. Raburn has played exactly a 113 games for each of the past two years and has produced well during his limited playing time. Projecting out his skills over 40 more games makes him look like a sure bet for 25 HRs and around a .285/.350/.500 line. Not exactly a superstar, but definitely a very good outfielder and a much needed reliable bat in the Tigers roster.