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Sunday 27 March 2011

CTOD: Colorado Rockies

Although the Rockies finished at 83-79, and nine games back of the Giants, the NL West was largely a three team horserace for all of 2010. Indeed, things were incredibly tight until the Troy Tulowitzki show (15 September HRs) ended with the Rockies losing 8 straight to finish the season. Going into the 2011 season the Rockies made few adjustments to their roster and expect to compete in a difficult NL West once again.

Colorado definitely has all the pieces you need to field a competitive team year in and year out. They have a shutdown pitcher in Ubaldo Jimenez, two bonafide superstarts in the heart of their order in Tulo and Carlos Gonzalez, and a lockdown closer with Huston Street. Qualifying for the playoffs thus becomes a matter of maximizing production from the rest of the order and pitching staff while allowing the superstars to carry the team.


Offensively, last season was all about CarGo and Tulo. Even though both benefit from Coors Field and produce significantly different home/road splits it would be inaccurate to say they are products of playing in Denver. Tulowitzki has developed into the premier shortstop in all of baseball, both with the glove and at the plate, and was an MVP candidate last season despite missing 40 games. If Tulo plays 150 games this year and the Rockies are in the pennant race then he will most likely be in the MVP discussion again. However, things get interesting for Colorado when looking at the rest of the lineup. Last season the rest of the lineup delivered virtually nothing beyond replacement level production. Todd Helton is offering only on-base skills, managing just 27 extra base hits, and looks to be moving into a part-time/platoon role this year. Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith, and Ian Stewart all appear to have the tools to be regular MLB players but have been plagued by inconsistency thus far in their careers. This may be the last chance for all three of them to show they can be in the lineup everyday.

On the mound the Rockies don't have the depth that their counterparts in San Fran, LA, and San Diego have, but they still can run out a respectable 5 man rotation. Jimenez has put up ace level production for two years and is a horse at the top of the rotation. Jason Hammel is under-appreciated, he has posted a 3.70 FIP for the past two years, and he reliably gives the Rockies quality innings. While Heyward and Posey received all the press last year, Colorado had a rookie sensation of their own emerge in Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin posted a career high K rate last season, an unusual feat for a rookie starter, but also struggled with control at the big league level. That being said, he has demonstrated above average control throughout his minor league career and should be able to make the adjustment as he gets more comfortable with MLB hitters. Getting a full season out of Chacin at a similar level of production as last year is a key for the Rockies this year. The last two rotation spots are left for a combination of Jorge De La Rosa, Esmil Rogers, and Aaron Cooke, all of whom will never be spectacular but can still give steady innings.

Overall, the Rockies really need their complementary hitters to get it going this year. This is a team that will never rely on pitching to win games and thus needs the offense to carry the club. As good as Tulo and CarGo are, it is difficult to project them being even better to push this team over the hump. Colorado needs 600 plate appearances of good production from Smith, Fowler, and Stewart to move this team from average to elite.

Prediction: 2nd NL West.

Surprise Player: Jhoulys Chacin

Last years 3.0 WAR put Chacin just below the big rookies (Heyward, Posey) but he definitely has room to improve in a full season this year. If he can get to 200 IP with this kind of production,  and lower his BB rate, then the Rockies can compete in the pitching deep NL West.

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