CTOD: Toronto Blue Jays

2010 was an interesting, yet strange, year for the Jays. They defied all expectations in the post-Halladay era by winning 85 games and gave opposing pitchers nightmares while torching their opponents for 257 HRs, 46 more than the next homer happy team, the Red Sox. That being said, perhaps nobody got a better view of all those moonshots than the Blue Jays themselves as they watched most of them from the comfort of their own dugout. If there was ever a lesson to be learned about the importance of on-base percentage, it is here. The Blue Jays got on-base at a .312 clip, good for fifth worst in MLB, and managed to only score only 755 runs despite all those dingers. In contrast, the Tampa Bay Rays hit 97 less homeruns but scored 47 more runs as their team OBP was a stellar .333.


However, just as surprising as the Jays power surge was the resilience of their pitching staff. Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero, and Brandon Morrow all stepped up in the rotation to provide reliable innings for a staff that was littered with question marks. While last years performance was not indicative of an elite pitching squad, as they finished 9th in AL in runs allowed, they managed to hold the fort often enough to let the offense do its work.

So what for this year? PECOTA projections have the Jays finishing dead last in AL East at a record of 76-86. Despite what many consider a successful offseason for the Jays, as they unloaded Vernon Wells' albatross contract, there is still no reason to expect this roster to get on-base with any kind of regularity. PECOTA projects the Jays to have a .315 OBP and I would venture this may be somewhat optimistic as it relies on both Adam Lind and Aaron Hill having bounce back seasons. There is also no reason to expect the Jays to hit that many HRs again which means it seems inevitable that they will score less runs than in 2010. So unless the Jays pitching staff can take another step forward, via the addition of youngster Kyle Drabek and the further development of their current starters, Jays fans could be in for another long summer.

Prediction: 4th in AL East. There is just way too much firepower in the AL East to go alongside the Jays' on-base-aphobia.

Surprise Player: Brandon Morrow.

Morrow finally got his wish last year and was given a chance to start for a full season. While the road was bumpy, and full of disaster starts, Morrow still managed to piece together a respectable season. Anyone who watched his one hit, 17 K, performance over the Rays knows that there is some immense talent here.  Also, his supplementary numbers show that he might have also been very unlucky in many cases. He gave up a .342 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) which is much higher than his career rate and about 45 points higher than league average last year. Be that as it may, it is also reasonable to expect him to give up more than the 11 HRs he allowed last year. Overall, I wouldn't be surprised to see Morrow to get a few more breaks in 2011 and also begin to feel much more comfortable in his starting role. Look for him to challenge Romero at the top of the Jays rotation.