CTOD: Chicago Cubs

Is there a more wide open division than the NL Central? The reigning division champs, the Cincinnati Reds, are hardly favorites going into the upcoming season. Perennial Central favorites - the Cards - have lost their ace for the season, whereas the Brewers and Cubbies both revamped their rosters to get into "win now" mode.

2010 was an odd year for the Cubs. The "friendly confines" of Wrigley were anything but congenial as the Cubs staggered to a 35-46 record at home - good for worst in MLB. Even stranger was the decision to banish their ace (Zambrano) to the bullpen for several months in order to get his head back on straight, although this move amazingly enough seemed to have worked in the short term. Offensively, bounce back years for Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto were offset by down years for Aramis Ramirez and the now departed Derek Lee. Perhaps the lone bright spot for the Cubs faithful last year was to finally see a prospect succeed at the big league level, as Stalin Castro held his own at SS in his first season.

So what needs to go right for the Cubs to compete in 2011? Newcomers Matt Garza and Carlos Pena must overcome their maddening inconsistency. Ramirez and Soto need to stay healthy and play every day. I am not sure the ceiling is much higher on what to expect from Castro but if he remains consistent or develops even more the Cubs will be pleased. Finally, Zambrano et al need to keep the fuel rods from getting exposed, or keep their heads on a swivel, and just play some baseball. However, an early spring squabble between Silva and Ramirez, alongside continual "lifestyle" questions for Randy Wells, has pretty much everyone doubting that this team can keep it together for more than a few weeks at a time.

Prediction: On paper, offseason changes and better performance at home would lead one to think the Cubs could hang in the race this year. That being said, this team is always one error or bad bounce away from going all Charlie Sheen on each other. Unless there are some hidden warlocks on this roster I can't see them #winning, or being better than 4th in the NL Central.

Surprise Player: Geovany Soto.

After an atrocious sophomore season Soto bounced back with a performance similar to that of his rookie year. However, health issues remain a concern. When he is on, Soto is in the same category as McCann and Mauer, although his defense is often questioned. If he can get himself into 135 games this year he will provide much needed depth and consistency to the Cubs lineup while ranking among the elite offensive backstops in MLB.