The major's oldest franchise enters the 2011 season as defending NL Central Champs after an improbable 2010. Breakout young stars and steady veterans paced them to a 91 win season under Dusty Baker, good enough for a 5 game win over the favored St. Louis Cardinals. Of course they didn't make much noise in the playoffs, the victim of a first round sweep at the hand of the eventual champs (and Roy Halladay's amazing post-season no hitter). Now what can they do for an encore?
The offense in paced by reigning NL MVP, the Canadian tower of power, Joey Votto. At just 27 years old, he's upped his average and power numbers in each of the past 3 seasons. Last year Votto teased us with the prospect of a Triple Crown, ultimately finishing in the top 3 in each of the three categories (RBI's, AVG, HR). His supporting cast includes phenom Jay Bruce, potential 30/30 man Drew Stubbs, solid veteran Scott Rolen, and fan favorite Jonny Gomes. Unfortunately it also includes the light-hitting Paul Janish (.260/5 HR/25 RBI in 82 Games) and the declining Brandon Phillips, whose numbers dropped dramatically last year despite his first all-star appearance. But at the end of the day, I expect this offense to put enough runs on the board to earn some wins for their stingy young rotation.
The Reds sterating five is loaded with potentially great young pitchers who are currently hampered by arm issues. You've got Edinson Volquez, back from ligament replacement surgery in his elbow. He was less than impressive in limited duty last year, but perhaps this year he'll regain his all-star form. Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto each enter the season with shoulder inflammation, but both could be quite good if they can stay healthy. Veteran Bronson Arroyo is always dependable (if unspectacular) and even garnered a Cy Young vote last year. He's the undisputed rock of this staff. The group is rounded out by the solid lefty Travis Wood and another young (tired) arm, Mike Leake. Since this season for the Reds potentially hinges on the health of this dynamic young group, how Dusty Baker manages them for max effect and minimum DL visits is key. Dusty's track record for doing that isn't too great, but I have faith that he'll get the job done in '11.
The Red's closer is Francisco Cordero, a shaky but veteran bullpen arm. Should he falter, rookie fireballer Aroldis Chapman is more than able to step into the role with his 100mph heat. They'll definitely be missing the ageless lefty set up man Arthur Rhodes, who turned back the clock last year with an impressive season.
The Reds once again find themselves in prime position to take the NL Central. They do have potential injury woes in their rotation, though none as serious as St. Louis (Wainwright gone for the season). I feel between their good young arms, solid managing from one of the game's best and a capable offense they should be able to repeat against the flightless Cards.
Prediction: 1st NL Central
Surprise Player: Drew Stubbs
If Stubbs continues to improve this year he could make a run at joining the 30/30 club after a solid season last year with 22HR and 30 SB's. His days of being the best player you haven't heard of may be over.
This division should see a tight race between the Brew Crew and the Reds. Everyone will be talking Braves/Phillies but this will be an exciting race most definitely.
ReplyDeleteI saw two of the three opening weekend games between the Reds and Brewers. While the Brewers were without Corey Hart and Zach Greinke, I just don't see them competing with the fiesty Reds. The Brewers bullpen is pretty piss poor.
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