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Tuesday 8 March 2011

CTOD: Oakland Athletics

2010 was frequently touted as the year of the pitcher and it was the Bay Area pitching staffs that were leading the charge. I already reviewed the Giants dominant young pitching staff but it may come as some surprise that it was the A's pitchers that allowed the least amount of runs in the AL last year. Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Brett Anderson all put forth solid efforts last year and all are under the age of 27. However, all of the above pitchers appear to have been somewhat fortunate as their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) numbers come in higher than their low ERAs. Thus projecting 2011 performances becomes problematic. Either the A's pitchers will continue to benefit from an excellent A's defense and also get better as they age/gain more experience, or else regress towards the means as their supplementary numbers would suggest. I wouldn't personally be shocked to see their pitching numbers slightly get worse but still be one of the top staffs in the AL.


On the offensive side of the baseball is where the A's really struggle. Daric Barton, Jack Cust, and Coco Crisp were the only A's doing anything offensively last year and even that isn't saying much.  Barton is single-handedly trying to redefine the value of first baseman as his light hitting, get on base, and play crazy defense style had both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs scoring him with 4 Wins Above Replacement value. However, the A's generally fielded a team where only 2-3 players in the lineup had an OPS+ over 100 last year and as a result struggled to score runs all season long.

The 2011 A's performance will largely depend on how much their offense improves with the additions of Hideki Matsui, David DeJesus and Josh Willingham. In truth, these three players could actually fill the 3-5 positions in this years A's lineup. A fact that speaks volumes about how awful the offense was last year. That being said, all 3 of these players, as well as the other A's outfielders, have serious questions about staying healthy for an entire season. PECOTA projections are skeptical on the A's offense, they have them slugging a meager .374, and thus struggling to finish above .500 for the season.

Prediction: 2nd in the AL West. The A's could easily sneak into the playoffs if their offense can start to complement their excellent rotation. However, the MLB season is too long and the injury concerns too many to outright predict a playoff spot for them.

Surprise Player: Gio Gonzalez

While Anderson and Cahill received much attention with their sub-3 ERAs it is Gonzalez with the nastiest pure stuff on the pitching staff. Most of Gonzalez's struggles come from his control problems, posting a BB/9 ratio over 4 last year, but any advancement in his command of the strike zone will push him to the top tier of MLB starters and a legitimate number 1. Look for him to emerge at the top of an excellent A's rotation this year.

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