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Thursday 31 March 2011

The Wilbur Wood Start

Watching the Dodgers-Giants game tonight and it appears as though Tim Lincecum is in line for the loss despite going 7 innings and giving up no earned runs. Of course, he qualifies for the loss because Matt Kemp scored on a throwing error during the sixth inning. Now I don't want to get into the ridiculousness of wins and losses, and what they really represent in regards to pitching performance, but I wanted to see how often pitchers take losses under similar circumstances.

Enter the Baseball-Reference.com play index. Since 1970, there have been 389 games where a pitcher has tossed 7 innings while giving up zero earned runs and being tagged with the loss. Five pitchers have actually been hung with the loss four different times during this period; here they are with total career starts in parentheses:

Wilbur Wood (297), Fernando Valenzuela (424), Charlie Hough (440), Nolan Ryan (773), and Tim Belcher (373).

Wilbur Wood appears to be the pitcher with the hardest luck out of this group, by virtue of doing it in the least amount of starts, and has thus earned the title for this manner of start. From now on when a pitcher goes 7 innings without giving up an earned run and takes the loss I will be dubbing it a Wilbur Wood start. Or WW start. Or W squared. You get it.

*Side notes: Yes, this does indeed add further to the mysteries behind knuckle-ballers as both Hough and Wood mastered the pitch. Wood was also the last pitcher in baseball history to both win and lose 20 games in a season (24-20 in 1973).

Happy Opening Day!!

It's Christmas morning for baseball fans and all of us here at Cans of Corn would like to wish everyone a very happy Opening Day!

We've had a busy month here at CoC since launching the site 29 days ago and I would personally like to thank Curtis, Cam, and Matt for all their help. Against all odds we managed to get all 30 team previews up and it looks like everyone here is geared for the upcoming season. If you are new to site please check out the follow predictions and previews for a primer on what each of us are expecting for the next six months.

Enjoy!!

Curtis Cleveland's 2011 Predictions

Musty's 2011 Predictions

Cornhole Jones' 2011 Predictions

Rod Ruff's 2011 Predictions

As a bonus, be sure to also check out Curt's more in-depth thoughts, predictions and surprises for the season here.

Finally, you can check out all of our 2011 team previews by using the right sidebar.

2011 Staff Season Predictions - Rod Ruff

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
AL West: Oakland Athletics
AL Wildcard: Boston Red Sox

NL East: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
NL West: San Francisco Giants
NL Wildcard: Colorado Rockies

AL MVP: Joe Mauer
AL CY Young: Jon Lester
AL ROY: Zach Britton

NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum
NL ROY: Aroldis Chapman

One big surprise of the season: Philadelphia doesn't make the playoffs. After all the hoopla, injuries derail both the offense and the dream rotation as the Phillies fight, and ultimately lose, the wild card race.

2011 Staff Predictions - Curtis Cleveland

AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Chicago White Sox
AL West: Oakland Athletics
AL Wildcard: Tampa Bay Rays

NL East: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
NL West: San Francisco Giants
NL Wildcard: Philadelphia Phillies

AL MVP: Evan Longoria
AL CY Young: Jon Lester
AL ROY: Jeremy Hellickson

NL MVP: Prince Fielder
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL ROY: Freddie Freeman

One big surprise of the season: Texas doesn't make the post-season. Injuries bite again and the solid progression of Oakland's rotation combined with superb defense gives them the AL West Division.

2011 Staff Predictions - Cornhole Jones

AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Texas Rangers
AL Wildcard: Oakland Athletics

NL East: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: Cincinnati Reds
NL West: Colorado Rockies
NL Wildcard: Philadelphia Phillies

AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
AL CY Young: Jon Lester
AL ROY: Jeremy Hellickson

NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzski
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL ROY: Brandon Belt

One big surprise of the season: We'll have a Triple Crown Winner. For the first time since Carl Yastrzemski
in 1967 someone will capture baseball's elusive prize. Will it be Votto, Pujols, Car-Go, A-Gonz? I don't know. Isn't it bold enough to just predict a Triple Crown?

2011 Staff Season Predictions - Musty

AL East - New York Yankees
AL West - Texas Rangers
AL Central - Detroit Tigers
AL Wild Card - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

NL East - Atlanta Braves
NL West - San Diego Padres
NL Central - St. Louis Cardinals
NL Wild Card - San Fransisco Giants

AL MVP - Adrian Gonzalez (Boston Red Sox)
AL Cy Young - David Price (Tampa Bay Devil Rays)
AL ROY - Desmond Jennings (Tampa Bay Devil Rays)

NL MVP - Albert Pujols (St. Louis Cardinals)
NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum (San Fransisco Giants)
NL ROY - Freddie Freeman (Atlanta Braves)

One big suprise of the season: San Fransisco repeats as World Series Champions, although this time it will be by the grace of a Wild Card berth. Other surprises: more big name players come clean about using PED's, but that's becoming less of a surprise these days.

CTOD: Arizona Diamondbacks

Similar to their divisional neighbours, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the sun seems to be setting on what was one of the brightest young cores of talent in all of baseball for the Arizona Diamondbacks. 2010 marked the second straight year the D-backs finished in the gutter of the NL West and a lack of depth on both the big league and minors roster seems to destine them to be there for some time.

Last season, pitching was the problem. Arizona allowed 836 runs, good for third worst in baseball, and they featured one of the worst bullpens in recent memory. Not just bad, epically bad. The Diamondbacks bullpen finished the season with an almost unfathomable 5.74 ERA, which was a full run more than the next highest bullpen. Combine that with a rotation that only had two starters (Ian Kennedy, Rodrigo Lopez) pitch more than 142 innings and it was a recipe for disaster.

Wednesday 30 March 2011

CTOD: Houston Astros


The Houston Astros finished with a 76-86 record in 2010 and I really don't see them getting any better this year, however no worse either. With no major additions to bolster their sub par offense, the only thing that will save them from losing more than last year will be the starting rotation.

CTOD: Cincinnati Reds


The major's oldest franchise enters the 2011 season as defending NL Central Champs after an improbable 2010. Breakout young stars and steady veterans paced them to a 91 win season under Dusty Baker, good enough for a 5 game win over the favored St. Louis Cardinals. Of course they didn't make much noise in the playoffs, the victim of a first round sweep at the hand of the eventual champs (and Roy Halladay's amazing post-season no hitter). Now what can they do for an encore?

CTOD: Seattle Mariners

We definitely haven't been saving the best for last in making our way towards completing our Countdown To Opening Day season previews. Yesterday we previewed the Pirates and Indians and today we will be looking at the Mariners and Diamondbacks. All four of whom are probably favorites to sweep out the basements of their respective divisions. So let's get to the Mariners..

I don't know where to start with 2010 Mariners. Has there even been a team with playoff aspirations that tanked so gloriously? Last year at this time the M's featured the best 1-2 pitching punch in all of baseball, Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, and had high hopes for riding this duo all the way to the postseason. What a difference six months makes. When it was all said and done Seattle had probably put together the worst offensive season in MLB history, putting a meager 513 runs on the board, and finishing at a lowly 61-101.

Tuesday 29 March 2011

CTOD: Milwaukee Brewers


For an offense that was pretty decent last year and had a few surprises, the emergence of Hart, Weeks and McGehee, the Brewers still finished below .500 at 76-86, good for 3rd in the NL Central. The pitching is what really struggled for the Brew Crew last year. They had a team combined 4.58 ERA and only managed 75 quality starts, not good enough for a team looking to compete and win a division. What did Milwaukee do? They went out and found some pitching, it came at a price but they certainly bolstered their arsenal.

CTOD Pittsburgh Pirates


19 losing seasons in a row, had the second fewest runs scored, (587) a team worst since 1985. That's not even the worst stat, they allowed a league leading 866 runs giving the Pirates an atrocious -279 run differential (no wonder you can't win games). So why would anyone want to be a Pirates fan? I'll tell you why...

CTOD: Cleveland Indians

Times are tough in Cleveland. Although the Tribe has tried to stay relevant in recent years by flipping big league stars for young talent, the unpredictability and difficult of developing prospects has thwarted their best efforts. Last year the Indians struggled offensively, scoring only 646 runs, as they battled injuries and poor performance from their young players.

CTOD: Detroit Tigers

Glancing at the PECOTA projections for 2011 and it looks like a three team dogsled race between the Twins, White Sox, and Tigers. Indeed, all three are projected to win 82-83 wins. This may seem counterintuitive upon looking at last years final standings, the Tigers finished 13 games behind the Twins, but still demonstrates how close the talent pool is between these three teams.

Last season, Detroit mainly fell behind its divisional rivals in run prevention. They allowed 39 more runs the ChiSox and 72 more runs than the Twins despite scoring runs at a very similar rate to both teams. Interestingly, most of the questions about the Tigers going into the 2011 season are about offense as the pitching looks to be the most predictable part of this team.

CTOD: Chicago White Sox

If recent history is any indicator of future performance then the 2011 White Sox might be a team to avoid. Since their championship season in 2005, the Sox have alternated between good and bad seasons which may be an indicator of taking on the bipolar tendencies of their quirky manager. Last season the White Sox led the division for most of the first half but couldn't keep pace with the torrid Twins as they went on to post a respectable 88-74 record.

Monday 28 March 2011

CTOD: Baltimore Orioles

For the first time in years, possibly a decade, there is tempered enthusiasm in Baltimore. The enthusiasm stems from an amazing finish under new manager Buck Showalter last season, a solid group of young players, and an active offseason that filled some large holes in the roster. Temperance for the enthusiasm comes from the mountain of a challenge that is involved in climbing the AL East, where all four teams in the division won more than 85 games last year.

CTOD: New York Yankees

Although the expectation is for a World Series championship every year, it is hard to see 2010 as anything by a success for the Yanks. They lead the league in scoring and received enough pitching to post the best run differential in baseball on their way to the second best record in the AL.

All in all, 2010 was a year of pleasant surprises for the Yanks. Offsetting the declining performance of their aging premier players - A-Rod, Jeter, Teixeira, and Posada - was the emergence of Robinson Cano, Brett Gardner, Nick Swisher, and Curtis Granderson. All four of whom posted WARs of 3.6 or higher and thus ranking them in the top 5 in the Yankees lineup. The rotation struggled, both Javier Vazquez and A.J. Burnett posted ERAs north of 5.00, but the American League's third best bullpen was able to pick up the slack.

Sunday 27 March 2011

CTOD: Colorado Rockies

Although the Rockies finished at 83-79, and nine games back of the Giants, the NL West was largely a three team horserace for all of 2010. Indeed, things were incredibly tight until the Troy Tulowitzki show (15 September HRs) ended with the Rockies losing 8 straight to finish the season. Going into the 2011 season the Rockies made few adjustments to their roster and expect to compete in a difficult NL West once again.

Colorado definitely has all the pieces you need to field a competitive team year in and year out. They have a shutdown pitcher in Ubaldo Jimenez, two bonafide superstarts in the heart of their order in Tulo and Carlos Gonzalez, and a lockdown closer with Huston Street. Qualifying for the playoffs thus becomes a matter of maximizing production from the rest of the order and pitching staff while allowing the superstars to carry the team.

Saturday 26 March 2011

CTOD: Los Angeles Dodgers

Time is slowly ticking away for the Los Angeles Dodgers. 2 years ago the Dodgers seemed poised to dominate the NL West for years to come with a young core of Matt Kemp, James Loney, Andre Ethier. Russell Martin, Clayton Kershaw, and Chad Billingsley. Last season saw the unraveling of that dream. On the mound, Kershaw has developed into the number one starter he was always projected to be and Billingsley fits right in behind him as reliable number two. However, the young nucleus of hitters that seemed destined for stardom have seemingly peaked in their progression as hitters and struggled mightily last season. For that reason, the Dodgers scored 100 runs less than the previous year, in fact they only scored two more runs than the Padres, despite an almost identical lineup. Here's why:

CTOD: San Diego Padres

Last year was a cinderella season for the Padres, the kind of season all fans hope for during the spring, and they will be hoping for lightning to strike twice once again come April. I like to always refer to PECOTA rankings in these countdown to opening day previews as it gives a good look at what a team looks like on paper. That being said, the margin of error for PECOTA projections is usually plus or minus 8 wins, and thus as a purely predictive tool they aren't overly reliable. Critics of such projection systems would love to point to the fact that in 2010 the Padres were projected to win 74 games and instead won 90 while being in the pennant race all the way into the last weekend.

Friday 25 March 2011

CTOD: Washington Nationals

Upon reviewing the outlook for the Washington Nationals for the upcoming season I was instantly filled with regret for saying the Mets could compete with them for the bottom of the NL East this year. Perhaps it is the prospect hype, with Strasburg last year and then Harper this year, or else the high profile signing of Jayson Werth in the offseason, or Ryan Zimmerman emerging as one of the games best players, but I seem to give the Nats more credit then they deserve.

Thursday 24 March 2011

Getting Typecast: Neftali Feliz

After a back and forth spring, it was announced today that Neftali Feliz would be returning to the back end of the bullpen as the Ranger's closer. I don't need to state or explain why a starter is more valuable than a closer. That horse has been beaten to death. As for Feliz.. He was excellent as a starter during his limited minor league career, and has been just as good as a reliever since reaching the show in late 2009.  I am unaware of any scout or talent evaluator who doesn't think he can succeed at the top of a rotation at this point in his career.

Regardless, he is closing, and so what does this mean for a player with his track record?

Rob Deer: Player of the Future

Growing up during the 1980's, and growing to love baseball, there was always one player that mystified me: Rob Deer. I'll admit that in my youth I loved high batting average hitters, guys like Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, Paul Molitor, Edgar Martinez, etc.  I can still remember John Olerud's flirtation with .400 for a couple months in 1993 like it was yesterday and how exciting it seemed at the time. Only in my later years have I learned the limitations of batting average as a statistic and moved on to better measurements of player performance. However, back to Rob Deer.

CTOD: Philadelphia Phillies

Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels. I think we have all heard enough of the hype and are ready to see what this rotation is capable of on a daily basis. For those of you who can't get enough of the Phillies super-rotation, then I highly recommend Curtis Cleveland's best rotation of all time article found here.

There were few surprises on the hill last season for the Phils. Halladay mowed through NL hitters for a spectacular 250 innings. Hamels pitched almost exactly the same way he has for the past 3 years, with #1 stuff, and his ERA came back down to near 3.00 after an unlucky 2009. Oswalt wasn't just lights out for his second half stint with Philadelphia, he was as good as he has ever been, posting his best K rate since his rookie year. Add Cliff Lee and things are looking mighty difficult for NL lineups this year. However, with the exception of Hamels, no one on this super-staff is a spring chicken. Doc-Lee-Roy are all north of 33 and it wouldn't be unreasonable to except any of them to start to decline or miss time with those nagging injuries that afflict older pitchers.

CTOD: Atlanta Braves

If the Mets are the most tumultuous team in MLB then the Atlanta Braves may be their bizarro world counterpart. Although every team faces questions and concerns going into the regular season, the Braves, like in years past, seem like beacons of consistency.

On offense, it is difficult to find players whose performance is more consistent over the past few years than Brian McCann, Dan Uggla, and the under-appreciated Martin Prado. Jason Heyward was as amazing as advertised, aside from an injured thumb in June and July, and showed he is capable of MVP caliber play. Add a healthy Chipper Jones, who is absolutely raking this spring, and the Braves lineup looks as balanced as any in the NL.

CTOD: New York Mets

In the course of one year the New York Mets have gone from perennial playoff contender, slash September choke-show, to a team drowning in a sea of turmoil. 2010 was an entirely forgettable year for the Metropolitans and an off-season where ownership was paralyzed by personal financial troubles does little to raise the hopes of their embattled fans.

Indeed, very little went right in 2010.  Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran, and Johan Santana all suffered significant injuries and missed time. Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, and Jose Reyes continued to perform far under expectations. K-Rod beat up his girlfriends father. David Wright rediscovered his power stroke but saved his whining for the umps as he watched his OBP plummet to a career low. On the positive side, off-setting this mammoth list of disappointments were the emergences of Ike Davis and R.A. Dickey; the latter featuring an insane knuckleball and thus becoming one of the few must watch pitchers in the league on a start-to-start basis.

Monday 21 March 2011

CTOD Texas Rangers


The Texas Rangers were the AL Champs last year, yet lost to the Giants in the World Series. Will they repeat as AL Champs again? Do they have the stuff to take home the title of 2011 World Series Champs? Everyone knows they have the bats to get them there, no doubt about that. However is there pitching going to be able to hold up and give them what they need to win?

Saturday 19 March 2011

2011 Thoughts and Predictions


I realize that there are numerous "what if's" out there and everything can be "up for debate" but c'mon it wouldn't be baseball without some good ol' fashion predictions right? Reading many other bloggers and writers predictions I felt the need to come up with my own, that's the best part of baseball anything can happen and everyone has an opinion, so here we go...

Thursday 17 March 2011

CTOD: Boston Red Sox

Last year was a difficult one for Red Sox fans (myself included) as an injury plagued campaign had them finish the season in third place, behind the still surprising Rays and the always tough Yankees. Without key players like Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Josh Beckett and Kevin Youkilis for much of the year, new additions Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre picked up much of the slack but it wasn't enough to reach October. This year those two players are lost to free agency, but that long list of walking wounded has returned - alongside a few marquee additions.

Wednesday 16 March 2011

CTOD: Tampa Bay Rays

They will always be the Devil Rays to me. Although I have no emotional attachment to the Tampa Bay area the Rays have been one of my favorite teams over the past few years because of their collection of young talent. Unfortunately for the Rays, despite an incredibly successful season for the franchise, there still exists little to no fanbase for them in Florida. This lack of fan attachment may have made it easier on management to revamp their roster to meet payroll demands and thus the 2011 Rays look much different than last years.

Tuesday 15 March 2011

St. Louis Cardinals Preview


Finally some good news from the St. Louis Cardinals can be reported. Pitcher Chris Carpenter is ready to return to the roster after being sidelined two starts with a hamstring injury. The 2005 Cy Young winner will return on Wednesday and continue to be a critical piece of a struggling Cardinal bullpen this year. The most notable cause of struggle will be the loss of Adam Wainwright as he will miss the entire 2011 season after suffering an elbow injury that required surgery to repair. Last year, Wainwright finished second in N.L. Cy Young balloting next to Philadelphia's Roy Halliday.


Another noteworthy contest facing the Cards this year is not agreeing to a contract with club superstar Albert Pujols. Despite not agreeing to a contract, Pujols and the Cardinals have one year left to decide if he is worth the $300 Million price tag he is asking for. From a franchising and branding perspective, he is worth every penny. Statistically, he is Hall of Fame bound. That being said, he is also one injury away from being worth fractions of that price. How this will play into the kind of season we can expect from the team is to be determined. Pujols will continue to show up and do what he does best regardless and he made that clear on Day #1 of spring training. When questioned by reporters as to why he would even show up without a contract in place Pujols responded, " I respect my team too much". It looks like business as usual this year in the Cardinal clubhouse, but they are going to have to make adjustments to the line-up and avoid the contract/trade speculation that will surface all season.

CTOD: Chicago Cubs

Is there a more wide open division than the NL Central? The reigning division champs, the Cincinnati Reds, are hardly favorites going into the upcoming season. Perennial Central favorites - the Cards - have lost their ace for the season, whereas the Brewers and Cubbies both revamped their rosters to get into "win now" mode.

Monday 14 March 2011

A King's Ransom?

Earlier this morning Ken Rosenthal made a compelling case for the Mariners to trade Felix Hernandez to the Yankees:


The Mariners need players. Lots of players. The prospects they would get for Hernandez would join Pineda, second baseman Dustin Ackley and first baseman Justin Smoak to form an impressive young core.
There aren't words for how bad the 2010 Mariners were. Furthermore, despite a few promising prospects there is very little reason for optimism for the next few seasons. So what to do? There is no urgent need to trade Hernandez as he is under contract until 2014 and although he will make more than $20 million a year for the final 3 years of his contract the Mariners aren't in dire need of cash or payroll strapped.  So the pressing question is whether or not the Mariners are better with or without Hernandez?

CTOD: Minnesota Twins

2010 was a good year for the Twinkies. If you believe that what separates playoff teams from non-playoff teams are a series of fortunate bounces over the course of a long season then last years Twins are your team. Jim Thome replaced an unimaginably hot Justin Morneau and entered the MVP discussion despite only 340 plate appearances. Other "breaks" included  Francisco Liriano returning to his pre-injury dominance, Carl Pavano being healthy for a second consecutive year, Matt Capps filling in admirably for Joe Nathan, and Delmon Young playing like a corner outfielder for the first time in his career. Overall, the pitching, defense, and offense all clicked together and the Twins racked up 94 wins and ran away with the AL Central.

Sunday 13 March 2011

CTOD: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim


In 2010 the Angels finished 80-82, 10 games back of the AL West winning Texas Rangers. Obviously that was due in part to the loss of Kendry Morales. However some losses are others gain's, Morales gave us a ridiculous highlight reel home run then trumped it with the craziest accident since Randy Johnson plucked a bird in mid flight. The Angels averaged 4.2 runs per game in 2010, well below the 5.5 they averaged in 2009, so yeah the loss of Morales was a blow for sure.

Saturday 12 March 2011

CTOD: Chicago White Sox


In 2010 the White Sox finished 2nd in the AL Central, 7 GB of the Wild Card. Going into 2011 I believe the biggest enemy for the White Sox is mediocrity. Here you have a team that finished in the top 10 in most offensive categories last season (runs, hits, home runs, and batting average) yet couldn't get over the hump, why? lets take a look...

Thursday 10 March 2011

CTOD: Kansas City Royals


In 2006 Dayton Moore took over a team that was in shambles yet showed promise and had people in Kansas hoping to see success like some of the previous great Royals teams. Moore promised to be build a team through drafting and scouting and he has done just that, the Royals have the best farm system in baseball according to Baseball America. The flip side is that the Royals have had only one winning season since 2000, which is how they built the best system in baseball, giving them 8 top 10 selections over the past ten years.

Wednesday 9 March 2011

CTOD: Florida Marlins

Many felt the Marlins were primed for contention last season after a surprising 2009 in which they won 87 games. Others pointed to their lack-luster run differential and figured that those 09 Marlins received a few too many breaks. Regardless, the 2010 Marlins looked eerily similar to their predecessors throughout last season. Every year feels like the Marlins are going through the same process: hope the young pitchers - who are very good - can log enough innings, hope a few star players can carry the offense, and hope that the awful defense doesn't completely implode. Last year was no different. Johnson, Nolasco, and Sanchez once again proved that they are the real deal, but also proved that they struggle to get out there every 5 days as the Marlins didn't have a starter go over 200 IP. Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez provided most of the offense, yet again, but also provided some seriously ugly defense up the middle.

Tuesday 8 March 2011

Finish Strong, Start Strong?

Despite that fact that he was remarkably consistent for the entire 2010 season, Jose Bautista's performance last year was generally regarded with suspicion and as somewhat flukey. Fans reminisced of forgotten fluke seasons,  like the 50 homer campaigns of Brady Anderson and Luis Gonzalez, and wondered where Bautista's power surge was coming from. Both Bautista, and Jays hitting instructors, credited a change in his hitting approach that he made the previous September as the difference maker - a month in which Bautista clubbed 9 HRs.

CTOD: Oakland Athletics

2010 was frequently touted as the year of the pitcher and it was the Bay Area pitching staffs that were leading the charge. I already reviewed the Giants dominant young pitching staff but it may come as some surprise that it was the A's pitchers that allowed the least amount of runs in the AL last year. Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Brett Anderson all put forth solid efforts last year and all are under the age of 27. However, all of the above pitchers appear to have been somewhat fortunate as their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) numbers come in higher than their low ERAs. Thus projecting 2011 performances becomes problematic. Either the A's pitchers will continue to benefit from an excellent A's defense and also get better as they age/gain more experience, or else regress towards the means as their supplementary numbers would suggest. I wouldn't personally be shocked to see their pitching numbers slightly get worse but still be one of the top staffs in the AL.

Sunday 6 March 2011

Best Rotation Of All Time?


One of the major questions, leading up to the 2011 MLB season, that has everyone from casual fan to serious fan buzzing is the strength of the Phillie's rotation. Is it the best rotation of all-time? How will it stack up? The questions are endless and we'll never really know until next season when we can look back. However we can certainly look at the stats to get a pretty good indication and in baseball stats never lie, you can't fake baseball.

Saturday 5 March 2011

CTOD: San Francisco Giants

*Note to reader: Rod Ruff remains extremely partial to the San Francisco Giants and is still riding high after witnessing their astonishing World Series run last year.*

What is left to be said about the Giants 2010 after endless analysis of their surprising World Series run? Perhaps that it was not that surprising after all. "Pitching wins championships" is the manta and while the postseason was the national coming out party for their young rotation this was hardly a surprise to the San Fran faithful. In 2010 the Giant's pitching staff led the league in ERA and strikeouts, which also shouldn't have been a surprise as they year previous they finished first in K's and second in ERA. 

Thursday 3 March 2011

CTOD: Toronto Blue Jays

2010 was an interesting, yet strange, year for the Jays. They defied all expectations in the post-Halladay era by winning 85 games and gave opposing pitchers nightmares while torching their opponents for 257 HRs, 46 more than the next homer happy team, the Red Sox. That being said, perhaps nobody got a better view of all those moonshots than the Blue Jays themselves as they watched most of them from the comfort of their own dugout. If there was ever a lesson to be learned about the importance of on-base percentage, it is here. The Blue Jays got on-base at a .312 clip, good for fifth worst in MLB, and managed to only score only 755 runs despite all those dingers. In contrast, the Tampa Bay Rays hit 97 less homeruns but scored 47 more runs as their team OBP was a stellar .333.

Countdown To Opening Day (CTOD)

The simplest way to ease into a new baseball season, and a new blog, is to use the month of Spring Training to evaluate the year ahead for all thirty teams in MLB. So each day for the next month I will take a quick look at one club and it's outlook for the upcoming season.

As there are plenty of projections, probable rosters, and scouting reports readily available throughout the web I will limit my take on each club to a brief synopsis of their overall expectations. However, I will also take the time to find one player on each team who is ready to make a surprising impact for their team this year. Superstars like Albert Pujols don't qualify, as we already know that he is going to put up outstanding numbers. Instead I am looking for young players ready to break out, like Posey and Heyward last year, veterans that are healthy and ready to produce again, ala Scott Rolen, or just all out surprises like Jose Bautista. Often times it is the players that surprise us, and maybe themselves, that catapult their teams to unexpected success or at the very least make watching baseball a lot more interesting.

First team up: The Toronto Blue Jays.

Morning Poles: Special K Edition

As the Steroid Era slowly disappears in the rear view mirror it appears that MLB has reached the dawn of a new age: the Jenny Craig Era. Seriously, aside from the usual spring training cliches surrounding adjustments, focus, and off-season regimes that reflect the unbridled optimism of Spring Training, has anyone ever remembered a spring where so much attention has been paid to weight loss?

It wasn't long ago that I remember announcers in the Jays locker room saying the players looked more like a football squad than a baseball team. Now big boys, like C.C. and Panda, have joined the "weightlifters", like A-Rod, Manny and Francoeur, and all reported to camp seriously slimmed down.

But does any of this really matter? That is for baseball performance, I mean. I am sure C.C. is dodging a serious diabetes bullet by refraining from eating an entire box of Cap'n Crunch every morning but baseball is replete with examples of "larger than life" athletes who succeed at the sport.  Sandoval had a great year in 2009 as big boy, and Crunch Berries has had C.C. on a Hall of Fame track his entire career.

As an interesting exercise in meaningless stats I decided to calculate the Body Mass Index (BMI) for the top and bottom 10 MLB hitters as they rank according to Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Of course this is mostly just for fun as a result of limited sample size and limitations with BMI as well as listed weights. However, the results:

Top 10 MLB hitters average BMI: 28.61
Bottom 10 MLB hitters average BMI: 27.89


On average the best players (non-pitchers) in MLB tend to be larger than their struggling counterparts. If we take Carlos Lee out of the bottom 10, as his BMI is a huge outlier at 34.0 - over 3 points higher than the next biggest player (Beltre) on the list, the bottom ten average plummets to 27.2.

Maybe we shouldn't be getting to excited about our favorite players getting skinnier.

Wednesday 2 March 2011

Reaching back for a little extra.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again.
It has been well over ten years since I first forayed into blogging and since then many blogs, sites, and articles have been lost to the trash bin due to boredom, time constraints, and creative apathy. In the past, I have tried to blog about all different topics, with baseball permeating the blog from time to time, but I always felt as though I was writing to a crowd that would prefer to read something else. Alas, no more. To feed my rabid baseball addiction and also my desire to write I am starting this blog and we will see what happens. Although Mr. Jones here would like to tell me that "people will come", I won't avail myself of any ideas of grandeur this time around. Writing for the sake of writing. Sounds good to me.