Last season, pitching was the problem. Arizona allowed 836 runs, good for third worst in baseball, and they featured one of the worst bullpens in recent memory. Not just bad, epically bad. The Diamondbacks bullpen finished the season with an almost unfathomable 5.74 ERA, which was a full run more than the next highest bullpen. Combine that with a rotation that only had two starters (Ian Kennedy, Rodrigo Lopez) pitch more than 142 innings and it was a recipe for disaster.
Moving along, the D-backs have a couple of things going for them pitching-wise in 2011. One, bullpens are the most easily changeable facet in professional baseball. Random variation alone should save Arizona's bullpen at least 30-50 runs this year. Second, only Ian Kennedy is returning to the rotation, albeit as the "ace". That being said, the actual ace of the staff is probably Daniel Hudson, a young fireballer who came over in the Edwin Jackson trade to Chicago and then immediately pitched better than the man he was traded for. Rounding out the staff are Joe Saunders and Armanda Galarraga, both experienced AL starters who might post slightly better than average numbers against NL lineups. Outside of Hudson, there isn't a whole lot of upside within this rotation but the front office is probably just hoping for some reliable innings.
In the field, the D-backs feature a strong core of talented, and still fairly young, players. Kelly Johnson, Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, and Chris Young are expected to be the first four hitters in this lineup and all are above average MLB players. Upton, who is still only 24, hasn't quite developed into the superstar/MVP candidate most expected him to become. However, it is hard to look at the youngsters numbers and not be impressed by what he has already accomplished at this point in his career. There is still plenty of time for him to get (even) better. Outside of these four, the lineup takes a nosedive. Miguel Montero, Juan Miranda, Melvin Mora, and Xavier Nady are expected to round out the lineup and expecting anything above replacement level production might be a little optimistic.
Overall, this team shouldn't be nearly as bad as last season's 97 losses. A lot has to go wrong for a team to lose that often and repeating another catastrophe in the bullpen is next to impossible. That being said, there isn't enough talent here to make one think they could compete with a few lucky breaks.
Prediction: 4th NL West. The division is too deep, especially in pitching, for the Diamondbacks to compete on a nightly basis.
Surprise Player: Daniel Hudson.
Consider this one a coup for Arizona's front office. As mentioned before, Hudson is already the D-back's best pitcher, and features a solid three pitch arsenal that excels at missing bats. His K-rate through the minors has been excellent and last season his change-up mystified MLB hitters (25% swing and miss rate, MLB average is around 12.5%). While his numbers from the second half might be a little low (1.69 ERA in 79.2 IP) considering how fly ball prone he is, I still expect big things from this guy. At the very least, he might give Arizona fans a reason to show up once or twice a week.
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